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Bitcoin traders’ profit margins repeat 2022 bear market — New research

Columns:Market News author:btczxw time:2024-07-11 02:33:54
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    Bitcoin is exhibiting classic bottoming-out territory when viewed through the lens of unrealized losses, CryptoQuant says.

    image.png

    •  market conditions are echoing late 2022.

      Bitcoin whales’ realized profits (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
      Bitcoin trader realized price vs. profit/loss margin (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
      Bitcoin realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

    • Bitcoin traders face bear market-style losses as a new report warns that a return to the upside could take months.

    • In its latest Weekly Report shared with Cointelegraph on July 10, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin 

    • BTC

      tickers down

      $57,757


    • BTC profits echo the post-FTX climate

    • Bitcoin faces multiple hurdles in returning to its bull market, and traders and miners are feeling the strain.

    • CryptoQuant revealed that more recent large-volume investors, known as whales, have distributed coins worth $1 billion in July alone.

    • “The fact that new and large investors are now realizing losses could be an early sign of Bitcoin price bottom. Previously, in February-March, this investor cohort had realized strong profits as prices peaked above $70K,” it commented.

    • In further contrast to the golden days of the bull run just months ago, traders are sitting on unrealized losses of 17% — the most since the pit of the last Bitcoin bear market in December 2022.

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    • “In this same tone, Bitcoin traders are now operating with negative margins, and would only realize losses if they continue to sell. Trader’s unrealized margins are now -17%, the most negative since shortly after the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022,” the report continued.

    • “Prices have typically bottomed-out when trader’s margins touch extremely negative levels as seen currently (red circles).”
    • An accompanying chart compared traders’ current realized price — their aggregate cost basis — to unrealized profit margins.

    • Bitcoin miners keep up sales

    • CryptoQuant additionally noted that miners remain in a “capitulation” phase, with operators likewise struggling to break even following April’s block subsidy halving.

    • Related: BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

    • As Cointelegraph reported, smaller miners, in particular, have been seen to quit the network amid a low hash price, taking hashrate lower.

    • “Large-size miners have sold about $300M since June 20, while mid-size miners have unloaded around $500M on a cost-basis,” the report now confirms.

    • In a July 9 post on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju calculated that crypto markets could be “boring for the next 2-3 months.”

    • “Stay long-term bullish but avoid excessive risk,” he suggested.

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